Health Care Games: The Odds Are Not In Obamacare’s Favor

“Over here in Europe we’re not really that interested in politics, but everyone has such a strong opinion in the U.S. In the 2004 presidential election, Intrade traders correctly predicted the election results in all 50 states. We just can’t comprehend the opposition.”

Ladbrokes spokesman Alex Bonohue said the site has taken “millions of pounds” worth of bets, primarily from people in the U.K., on who will win the U.S. But when the court heard oral arguments on the case in late March, the stock price shot up to almost 65 percent.

Wolfenden said Intrade market for the U.S. election, and he said that number will certainly go up as November draws nearer.

Intrade is the only political stock market ABC News could find that was taking bets on the Supreme Court’s decision, but other political gambling sites, such as the London-based Ladbrokes, were still keeping a close eye on the court’s decision.

The 595 traders, most of which are American, have collectively wagered about $210,000 on the court decision so far, a tiny fraction of the nearly $30 million traders have gambled on the outcome of the U.S. Since the Intrade market on the health care case’s outcome opened last March, the likelihood that the individual mandate would be struck down has skyrocketed.

When the Supreme Court announced it would hear the decision in December, the Intrade market was fairly certain it would be upheld, putting its chances of failure at a mere 45 percent. presidential election. is absolutely mad that it doesn’t have a public health care system,” Smithson said. it’s a good opportunity for people to really put their money where their mouth is.”

Throughout the past three months of court deliberations the probability that the mandate will be overturned has steadily increased, reaching a peak of 78 percent on Sunday.

Brits have already wagered about $10 million on the U.S. “There is a complete lack of appreciation for why it should be so politically contentious… presidential election. In 2008, traders were correct in all but two states.

Betting on whether President Obama or Mitt Romney will prevail in the presidential election, on the other hand, is “extraordinarily big business” in the U.K., Smithson said.. But if the market’s history is any indication, it’s highly likely their health care prediction will prove to be spot on when the Supreme Court hands down its decision.

“I’m a little skeptical of how good of a job it will do as predictor,” Strumpf said of the Intrade market.

But predicting what a small group of people deliberating behind closed doors will decide is much harder to forecast than a national election, where polling, economic indicators and momentum all factor into betting decisions, said Koleman Strumpf, professor of business economics at the University of Kansas School of Business, who studies political stock markets.

“Being blunt, I think that most Europeans think the U.S. election far exceeds the demand for trading on European elections in large part because politics is so divisive in America.

The odds of a key component of the Affordable Care Act surviving the court ruling, set to be issued Thurday, are slim if the betting money is any indication.

As pundits across America weigh the political odds of the Supreme Court’s health care decision, stock traders around the globe are wagering on the controversial law’s fate.

But with so few clues as to how the court will rule, Strumpf said the market “might be the best predictor” available.

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But because Ladbrokes caters almost entirely to Europeans, the Supreme Court ruling is not nearly as big of a factor in that market as it is for the primarily American Intrade, said Mike Smithson, a former BBC journalist and founder of

“In the US it’s almost a blood sport at times,” Wolfenden said. And how the court rules on health care will impact the odds on those presidential race bets, Bonohue said.

According to the Ireland-based market Intrade, where nearly 600 people have bought what amounts to futures stocks on the outcome of the court case, the cornerstone of the president’s health care law – the individual mandate requiring all Americans to buy health insurance – has a 76 percent chance of being deemed unconstitutional.

“We’ve got a pretty good track record of predicting things,” Intrade operations manager Carl Wolfenden told ABC News Preakness Odds Favor ”Afleet Alex” at 5/2 over Derby Winner Giacomo at 6/1; Leading Online Sportsbook Bets Preakness Wagering May Surpass Kentucky Derby

High Limit; 12-1

12. Ayre added that although six of the last eight horses that won the Kentucky Derby have also won the Preakness, this year’s 50/1 long shot Derby win by Giacomo is likely to mean that trend won’t continue. (For the most up to date odds see

“Most bettors go with the expected favorite,” said Calvin Ayre, founder and CEO of Scrappy T; 20-1

6. is valued at over US $1 billion and ranked in the Power 25 online companies by eGaming Review. Coming just two weeks after we’ve seen many of these horses run in the Derby, the Preakness comes as a shorter race with a more limited field.” He added that many of the factors that lead to upsets like the Derby were eliminated. Malibu Moonshine; 20-1

2. Closing Argument; 5-1

8. Ayre says wagering on the Preakness is likely to be even greater than the Derby because many more people will be motivated to bet long shots with the hope of striking it rich. Sports Casino Poker located in San Jose, Costa Rica, is federally licensed by the Costa Rican and UK governments. One of the pioneers in the field, is the top ranked US facing online gambling brand, with highest site traffic amongst US gaming web sites according to Hitwise. Going Wild; 30-1

The last time the Derby winner did not go off as the Preakness favorite was 2001, when Monarchos was the slight second choice behind Point Given, who won the race. “The Preakness has always been a gambler’s race for a host of reasons. Greeley’s Galaxy; 13-1

5. Giacomo; 6-1

14. Hal’s Image; 50-1

7. Galloping Grocer; 30-1

9. This is why the horse fell behind three more consistent runners in’s odds for the Preakness.

Ayre says, “We’ll have to wait and see if the betting patterns change that.”

SAN JUAN, Costa Rica–(BUSINESS WIRE)–May 20, 2005–Despite a stunning victory in the Derby as a 50-1 long shot, Giacomo currently lists longer odds (6/1) from online sportsbook for this Saturday’s Preakness than three horses he defeated: Afleet Alex (5-2), High Fly (9-2) and Closing Argument (5-1). Sun King; 15-1

11. Afleet Alex; 5-2

13. The average hold on a horse race for the Internet books is just shy of 20 percent.

Post; Horse; Odds

1. Noble Causeway; 10-1

4. Poker Sports Marketing Conference,, will take place in Las Vegas July 6 7, 2005, attracting the leaders of the online gambling industry.

While plenty of sports analysts, writers and commentators are offering their own opinions on the Preakness’ outcome, lines and odds show what the fans, placing approximately $1 million or more in wagers at, expect before Saturday’s race.

Giacomo’s unexpected victory at Churchill Downs also made a winner of online sportsbooks like, resulting in a 40 percent hold (profit). High Fly; 9-2


A long shot win at Saturday’s Preakness may prove to be even more profitable yet. “In this race,” he said, “the betting strongly favors the favorites.”. Wilko; 10-1


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Page 5: Super Bowl XLIX picks, prop bets

I took “Halftime tie/Seahawks win” and “Halftime tie/Patriots win” each for $100 at 15-1 at William Hill (it’s also offered at the Westgate SuperBook at 15-1, and I’ve seen it lower elsewhere). Over half (53 percent) of Kearse’s targets come at least 10 yards downfield, putting him over without a single yard after the catch (he averages 6.7 YAC per reception). Seattle’s defense held perimeter wide receivers to 1,219 yards this season, lowest of any team in the league. Given the Seahawks accounted for 60 percent of the teams’ first-quarter penalties, a minus-120 line offers a little more value than the even odds on the Patriots. Seattle’s defense was the only unit in the league to allow fewer than 1,000 yards outside the numbers (990), and LaFell’s game plays directly to their strength.

The play: Seahawks

Distance of first Jermaine Kearse reception: 9.5 (O/U -110, no reception = “under”)

The play: Under

Dave Tuley’s picks

Brandon LaFell: 50.5 receiving yards (O/U -110)

The Seahawks had 32 penalties enforced in the first quarter this season, tied for the second most of any team in the league. Seattle’s plus-15 penalty margin in the first quarter reinforces that bet compared with New England’s even first-quarter penalty margin.

Double result of first-half result/game winner: This is the first prop bet I made last week. That, combined with the assumption that the Patriots use Revis on Doug Baldwin (leaving Kyle Arrington for Kearse), means Kearse is better than 50-50 to have a 10-yard catch.. The play: Over

Props are called “the game within the game,” and last year we had a lot of success tying our plays to our overall game pick on the Seahawks. I’ve lost a few since then, but still ahead overall on this wager and believe this is a good spot to jump back in.

Kearse has had a catch in 17 of 18 games, so the “under via no reception” win is only a small consideration here. Basically, I’m cheering for a halftime tie, and then I’ll be guaranteed of cashing for $1,600 (7-1 on overall wager). So why in a pick-’em is the suggested bet an “under” for LaFell, who went over in 11 of 15 games since Week 4? Because 103 of LaFell’s 116 targets came when LaFell lined up as a perimeter wide receiver, which is where the Seahawks’ defense did its best work. Added value comes when looking at Kearse’s target distribution and hypothesizing New England’s coverage plan. With the game line and first-half line around pick-’em, I love those odds that I’m getting in a game that could see the teams trading scores. The Seahawks allowed 97 fewer yards than the Broncos, who held LaFell to four receptions for 39 yards in Week 9. Kearse recorded 9 yards or fewer on 20 of 42 receptions this year and at least 10 yards on the other 22. If a book was making odds on a halftime score, I believe 10-10 would be the favorite and other tied scores would be low prices, as well. I cashed this bet in 2005 when the Patriots and Eagles played to a 7-7 halftime tie. The Patriots had 21 first-quarter penalties, 12th fewest. So that’s what I’m looking to do again, though I’ll start with a prop tied to the expectation of it being a close game.

Removing the first few weeks of the season is important when looking at a LaFell bet, as he didn’t really earn Brady’s trust until Week 4 against the Chiefs according to the quarterback himself

Gaming firm 888 set for U.S. launch after Nevada license

online gaming market.

The license to operate in Nevada granted to London-listed 888 Holdings Plc is the first time an internet gambling company has been licensed in the United States, which banned online gambling in 2006.

LONDON (Reuters) – 888 (888.L) could launch an online gaming offering in Nevada, home to gambling center Las Vegas, as soon as May, a source said after the group won the first ever U.S. Yet the stock hit a seven-year-high earlier this month on hopes of a return to the United States.

Following receipt of the license, 888′s launch of online poker in Nevada could come as early as mid-second quarter, a source close to the situation said on Friday.

By Rosalba O’Brien

Analysts say companies like 888 and larger rival (BPTY.L) are well placed to take advantage of the move towards a regulated market, having the experience and infrastructure from years of operating in Europe.

“The highest visibility on U.S. and other soon-to-be regulated markets and backing out of smaller, unregulated ones.

Last month, New Jersey – home to the casinos of Atlantic City – legalized internet gambling in the state.

“This is an historic moment for 888. This is the first time a company uniquely providing online gaming has been licensed by any U.S. jurisdiction,” Chief Executive Brian Mattingley said.

“Management teams will need to successfully juggle maintaining growth in the core business whilst preparing for U.S. re-entry lies with 888 and, but Playtech (PTEC.L) is reported to be in advanced discussions and Betfair’s (BETF.L) provisional betting exchange license in California remains a source of key upside should it graduate to a full license.”

(Editing by David Holmes)

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But the legal position in the United States is changing and national legislation is set to be introduced in the spring as the federal government looks to overtake tax revenue-hungry states racing to follow Nevada in legalization.

Bwin, the world’s largest-listed internet betting firm, said earlier this month it was throwing more resources at the U.S.

888 has already signed a deal with Las Vegas operator Treasure Island to launch online poker under its own brand in Nevada.


The decision, announced on Thursday, had been expected after the Nevada state gaming control board voted to recommend approval earlier this month.

Internet betting was barred by Congress in 2006, dealing a blow to online gaming companies including 888 who had set up there and driving them elsewhere in their quest for growth.

By 7.16 a.m. income could eventually be considerable, it will likely not have a significant bottom-line impact until 2015.

LONDON Fri Mar 22, 2013 7:53am EDT

888, like other online gambling firms, suffered a plummeting share price in 2006 at the time of the U.S. clampdown. re-entry,” said analysts at brokerage Panmure Gordon.

Revenue from Nevada alone is likely to be limited, but the license is a key step for 888 in its development in the wider regulated U.S. license to be awarded to an internet betting firm.

It has also a signed a non-exclusive deal with Las Vegas casino brand Caesars (CZR.O) to power the web spin-off of Caesars’ World Series of Poker tournament, and has agreed a deal with slot machine operator WMS (WMS.N) to give it an online presence.

. ET the shares were flat at 162.6p.

($1 = 0.6588 British pounds)

888 has said that, while U.S


Nemanja Kaloper at the University of California, Davis and Antonio Padilla at the University of Nottingham have “proposed a…


Forget ISIS, Hackers and Money–The Universe Is About to Collapse

Forget ISIS, plane crashes, your student loan, Hillary’s emails, interest rates, Vladimir Putin, the Iran Deal, Ted Cruz, and anything else that keeps you up at night

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It is ubiquitous.

Roger I. Allowing states around the country to make the decision on sports gambling in their state is the right thing to do.</p>
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LAS VEGAS — Sports fans bet a record $98.9 million at Nevada casinos on the Super Bowl, the Nevada Gaming Control Board said Monday. LAS VEGAS — Getting money down on your favorite sports team is getting a little easier in Nevada with the first-ever legal wagering application for s…

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For millions of Americans, the mere mention of football season triggers sweaty palms and stomach churning. Sports betting is the most taboo yet pervasive activity among sports fans and grows in popularity exponentially.

Adventures of a Cranky Gambler — NFL Week 3

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– Las Vegas casinos think this weekend’s NFL games will be the highest-scoring ever thanks to the league’s replacement officials. 25, Week 7 of the NFL season, the corporate types running the mighty Las Vegas sports books found themselves trapped in the unpleasan…

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Super Bowl Gambling: Las Vegas Casinos Cash In

Chris Maloney

Professional and collegiate sports organizations have known for many years that the biggest threat to their game is in the area of officiating. If the game’s outcome is predetermined, we are just watching the commission of a crime.

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Fans Bet Record Amount On Super Bowl

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So, how much are we gambling each football season? Americans probably wager more than $50 billion a year on NFL and college football combined.

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NBA Commissioner: Allow Betting On Pro Sports Games

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Roger I. Abrams

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The 6 best sites to study German (Deutsch) free online

It is produced by Deutche Welle Radio and the Goethe Institute.

Radio D – Radio D is a cute audio drama that narrates the adventures of radio journalists traveling as they travel around Germany investigating news stories. However, the audio dramas do not teach you how to write German, only to understand it when you hear it. Furthermore, unlike the other sites on this list, LiveMocha really focuses on getting you to write German.

I will admit I did find it easier to passively listen to the audio dramas opposed to the more interactive LiveMocha or BBC Languages and found myself going back to the audio dramas time and again. From Bavaria’s famous Neuschwanstein Castle to Hamburg’s Harbor, they cover funny and bizarre stories, talk to interesting characters in their regional accents, and explore German cultural events.

Deutsch – warum nicht? – This is another audio drama that allows you to learn about a student named Andreas who works in a Hotel. The story line is inventive and entertaining. It is produced by Arte.

Mission Berlin – Mission Berlin, another audio drama, is a mystery story that includes time travel and strange occurrences. The lessons are quite methodical, albeit a little slow. Poor Andreas must deal with ‘ex’ an elf that causes all kinds of mischief. However, as it is not intended to teach German, you may learn some rather unusual words and miss important foundation words. While the characters speak in German, it is narrated and explained in English. The main character, Anna, does not speak German, but has to interact with Berliners and it is the listener’s goal to put the clues together and figure out the mystery before it is too late. Thus, depending on what you will be using your German for you may want to consider the interactive lessons.

So there you have a few options to begin learning German online and with a little dedication, you will soon know enough words to get around Germany (of course it also helps that they almost all speak English).

BBC Languages – The British Broadcasting Corporation, offers great lessons on a range of languages including German including vocabulary, grammar, and pronunciation. Each lesson is about 10 minutes long, and is put on by Deutsche Welle Radio and the Goethe Institute.

Karambolage – I recently read about Karambolage at Slate and I was quite impressed with it. It is put on by Deutche Welle Radio.

LiveMocha – LiveMocha offers very interactive lessons the concentration on first learning the vocabulary, reviewing it, and then submitting your writing/ audio recording to peers. Its original intent is not to teach foreigners German, but to entertain German children. The main focus of the BBC language for German is the German Steps course which is taken over 12 weeks and includes weekly emails to keep you on course.

Have you ever wanted to learn German? Below I have listed several online learning sources that have helped me learn German and I hope will help you:

Have you ever tried one of these sites? What did you think of it?

. Between the simple story lines and adorable graphics it manages to entertain you enough to consider going back every week for the next episode